The Influencer’s 2021 Predictions Graded

By: Kyle Jelinek

Each year, like many marketing blogs, The Influencer usually makes predictions about what the coming year will bring. You rarely see those same blogs going back and commenting on how accurate their predictions were. In an exercise of transparency, but mostly because as performance marketers, we like to assign a grade to everything we do, this week we will review our 2021 predictions to test the trustworthiness of our crystal ball and share what it means to advertisers as we head into 2022.

1. Podcast Hits $1B in Revenue Before Black Friday

Podcast was originally set to hit the coveted $1B milestone in 2020 but was stalled by the pandemic. So this was a fairly easy one to call. While the numbers are not 100% reconciled, forecasts from the IAB as early as last May were already estimating 2021 revenue to be at $1.35B. Being in the trenches and seeing the ravenous consumption of podcasts available in Q4 first-hand, the $1.33B revenue estimates were most certainly hit and then some, and current estimates expect them to be medium to hit $2B by next year. For advertisers who’ve found Podcast to be “their little marketing secret” are now being faced with challenges of a maturing medium like higher prices, increased spend thresholds, and less host personalization in their ad reads.

Correct +1

2. Podcast Acquisitions Slow and Narrative Shifts To Mergers and Talent Acquisitions

This, too, was an easy one to predict. At the time of the original publication, the largest players in the space had already been acquired, so the natural conclusion is that the proliferation of podcast acquisitions would slow in 2021. While 2021 saw some relatively small (by 2019 and 2020 standards) mergers this past year, and too many one-off talent acquisitions to mention, we are starting to see some of the 2020 talent acquisitions fall apart (see Last Podcast on The Left) and we expect more in 2022 as talent starts to see that the grass isn’t always greener.

Correct +1

3. Radio Sees Dead Cat Bounce

This prediction will require more time to determine whether or not our prognostication was 100% true, but we think it will. While radio did see an increase in revenue in 2021 to pre-COVID levels, radio insiders are projecting another increase in 2022 driven by revenue generated from this year’s mid-term elections. Ultimately, we hold true to the statement that “this old warhorse is still trotting toward the glue factory”, it just may have a short stay in its execution. That said, radio isn’t completely going away anytime soon and while it’s been losing its luster for some time, this is a good thing for advertisers looking for a deal.

Correct +1

4. Personalized Creative Makes Headlines

2021 was a year of strides in personalized content within the audio landscape. While social media advertisers were faced with a diminished ability to target advertisers on their platforms due to more strict privacy rules, audio platforms like iHeart, Spotify, and SXM are now offering a myriad of ways to customize audio ad buys with creative that resonates with target audiences. This will only continue to grow in 2022 as DAI placements and audience targeting become more sophisticated on these channels. Moreover, with strides in tracking via pixel, advertisers can run multiple creative iterations on the same show to learn which resonates the most.

Correct +1

5. Amazon Fuses Smart Speaker and Podcast, Forming Dynamic Audio Experiences

This hasn’t really happened…yet. With the Amazon founder shifting his focus to the stars, we can only hope that this starts to take shape in 2022. For now, we’ll chalk this one up as a loss.

Wrong +0

6. Media Curtain Falls Between “Stop the Steal Republicans” and Everyone Else

Our 2021 predictions were unwittingly published on the day of last year’s Capitol insurrection and that’s one we didn’t see coming. However, with far-right pundits doubling down on the rhetoric, we’re seeing most of the brands we work with further distancing themselves from anything far-right over the past year leaving the space open to only the most hardcore direct response advertisers (and those brands that align themselves politically with their message).

Correct +1

7. Rise of the Middle

We’re thankfully starting to see this. In addition to the middle-focused podcasts we regularly feature on our Media Roundtable Podcast, we’re starting to see some less extreme media outlets move towards the center. In recent months, even traditionally right-leaning media outlets like Salem Communications have distanced themselves from “Stop The Steal” rhetoric. Of all the predictions we made last year, this is the one we’re most thankful to see come to fruition, but there’s still work to do.

Correct +1

8. Ad Loads Increase on Podcasts

We initially hypothesized that podcast networks would increase ad units on their programming to increase the revenue potential of each show. While we have yet to see this happen en masse, we are seeing more podcasts moving to dynamic insertion and opening up each show to more advertisers than ever before, which as listenership increases, is accomplishing the same goal. This is actually a good thing for advertisers breaking into the podcast space. For larger shows that would previously be unattainable for smaller advertisers, the ability to buy a fraction of the show’s total impressions reduces the cost of testing. We’ll take partial credit on this one.

Partially Correct +.5

9. Exclusivities Disintegrate

Unfortunately, this one is all too real. Many Podcast networks are doing everything in their power to make exclusivity a thing of the past. In our 2022 negotiations, the exclusivity terms we’ve held as a standard for years are being redlined. While this is frustrating for the shows in which we’ve successfully blocked competitors from advertising in the past, this move opens the door to advertisers looking to run on shows they previously couldn’t. While we haven’t seen talent reads coming as a premium yet, networks are demanding higher spend thresholds to get talent to endorse an advertiser.

Correct +1

10. Progress in Local Podcasts

We’ve made this prediction two years in a row and while it’s bound to happen one day, local podcasts haven’t really taken off. The exception is in the sports world where networks like Locked-On is producing content that is hyper-focused to individual teams. That said, this is a logical next step for podcasting and we should expect to see local take off in the coming years.

Wrong +0

11. International Podcast Placement Market Becomes Topic of Conversation

This one hit big. While Podcast continues to grow stateside, global growth of the medium is projected to make even greater gains in the coming years. As a result, we’re speaking with nearly every advertiser we have with a global footprint, investigating how to crack the global podcast market. If your brand is looking for a way to tackle international podcasts, we can help.

Correct +1

12. Rise of the ZoomCast

This is another prediction that, while not completely spot-on, has wormed its way into our everyday lives. As pandemic concerns continue to loom, the video conference format has become commonplace in the workplace and into general media but has not become a platform in and of itself as we predicted.

Wrong +0

13. Pixel Tracking Becomes Norm, but Gets Called Into Question

Pixel tracking continues to expand with more and more shows, networks, and advertisers adopting the methodology. And while it hasn’t been officially called into question, pixel tracking is not the be-all-end-all we’ve been dreaming of. Like every attribution model, pixel tracking is another tool used to piece together the truth. We recommend that marketers continue to use pixel-tracking as one facet of their attribution model while triangulating with post-purchase surveys and traditional marketing mix models to confirm results.

Correct +1

Our 2021 Scorecard

For those who have been keeping count, out of 13 predictions, 9 were right, 1 was half right, and 3 were wrong which gives our predictions for 2021 a 73%, which in the world of predicting the unpredictable is better than Nostradamus.

Despite our passing grade from last year’s predictions, this year, we’ll be moving away from the crystal ball and instead share an industry-wide, “here’s what we need to do in 2022”, where we highlight challenges the industry is currently facing and share our recommendations on how marketers can overcome. You’ll read our official challenges to the industry in The Influencer next week, same bat time, same bat channel.