Oxford Road’s Top 13 Predictions for 2021

Welcome to the Warring ’20s

At Oxford Road, we’ve been reading the industry’s predictions on 2021 and they all seem a bit optimistic. Negative political polarization is greater than ever, race relations are at an all-time low, and the pandemic is mutating into new, more contagious strains. Welcome to 2020, Part 2, and like most sequels, it’s likely to get worse before it gets better. HAPPY NEW YEAR!

1.    Podcast Hits $1B in Revenue Before Black Friday
This one’s a slam dunk. 2021 is the year Podcast grows up and hits the billion-dollar mark. The industry was poised to hit this milestone in 2020 but because of the pandemic, projected growth slowed. It still grew, showing the durability and gathering Madison Avenue appeal of this little industry that could. Based on our projections, we’re forecasting that the $1B mark is hit ahead of schedule.

2.    Podcast Acquisitions Slow and Narrative Shifts To Mergers and Talent Acquisitions

2020 was the year of podcast acquisitions. From Spotify’s massive entry into the space earlier in the year to Amazon’s recent acquisition of Wondery, there are far less 9-figure networks to conquer. The biggest players have already been purchased, and what’s left is unlikely to attract massive interest. However, we expect further consolidation in the industry possible and more “one-off” buy-ins for individual shows like Spotify did with Joe Rogan.

3.    Radio Sees Dead Cat Bounce

Radio advertising took a massive hit during the pandemic and many are projecting a rebound in 2021. However, this old warhorse is still trotting toward the glue factory. While we expect Radio to see an increase in advertising revenue this year as a reaction to the profound dips of the previous year (which will remain nameless), it’s all down from there. That said, ad revenue will likely fall much faster than listenership, making Radio a great opportunity for marketers who want to leverage the downward slide.

4.    Personalized Creative Makes Headlines

With programmatic advertising expanding in all areas of the media landscape, personalized creative will quickly become the norm. Forget about running a single commercial ad nauseam — personalized creative that is custom-tailored to your target audience will start to take over. We’re already seeing this grow in OTT, and Audio is just getting started. But don’t worry, partners like A Million Ads and Marpipe are helping marketers develop a massive amount of iterations.   

5.    Amazon Fuses Smart Speaker and Podcast, Forming Dynamic Audio Experiences

Now that Mr. Bezos has turned his gaze to the podcast industry, it is our prediction that the nascent Flash Brief industry (short-form audio) and Podcast industry (long-form audio) are about to have a baby. The greatest impact will be the integration of dynamic audio content that can be maneuvered via voice command. We’ve been calling this for a while, but the latest transaction with Wondery just brought us a lot closer.

6.    Media Curtain Falls Between “Stop the Steal Republicans” and Everyone Else

The Republican party is now split between election-disputing Trump die-hards and establishment Republicans. This schism is not just influencing the halls of Congress, but also the media landscape. We predict that “Stop the Steal” programs that promote the notion of election theft will face a major backlash from brands retreating from any association with this thinking. Those still carrying the Trump Torch will become persona non grata, and find themselves blacklisted from everything but hardcore direct response advertisers as brands seek safety between center-right and far-left news and political programming.

7.    Rise of the Middle

Lord, please let this come to pass. As Fox News moves toward the center and left-leaning news platforms have nobody to rail against, things will begin to stabilize. Our prediction and hope is that the media returns to an era of objective reporting and journalistic integrity. To find out where the media stands in terms of bias and reliability, start with the gold standard in bias ratings.

8.    Ad Loads Increase on Podcasts

Because they’ve literally spent hundreds of millions of dollars on Podcast, the media conglomerates who jumped into the space will need to find new ways to monetize. The easiest way to accomplish this is to jam produced DAI brand spots into their content. We’ve already seen several of our long term partners begin cramming 10 pounds of ads into a 5-pound bag, but it’s just the beginning. The days of one or two advertisers per episode are waning — start monitoring this quiet shift as your favorite shows become the audio version of the discount bin at Ross. 

9.    Exclusivities Disintegrate

Perhaps as a subset to the previous prediction, the increased need to monetize Podcast will also lead to the slow death of exclusivity deals on the medium. For the most part right now, when you advertise on any podcast, you’ve secured the category exclusivity for a period of time. We’re already battling networks on this point and the end result is likely a world where “episodic exclusivity” is all any network can guarantee. Expect talent reads to come at a premium as well. 

10.  Progress in Local Podcasts

For those paying attention, this was one of our projections last year but we’re kicking it down the field. Now that every conceivable podcast genre has been taken, local podcasts will take off and reach critical mass, making them viable for national advertisers and stand-alone campaigns alike. This movement will be another blow to Radio, who’s most attractive attribute is its hyper-local reach. 

11.  International Podcast Placement Market Becomes Topic of Conversation

Now that many podcasts have the ability to geo-target, we can isolate individual countries and expand client’s advertising presence outside of these here United States. We’re already hearing this request from many of our advertisers and expect more to come. More opportunities will undoubtedly arise as the landscape becomes more and more dynamic(ally inserted).

12.  Rise of the ZoomCast

Everyone is on Zoom. As such, we will see the platform become an advertising medium of its own. As people continue to use the video conference tool, we will begin to see some convert their conversations into spoken word content for publication on podcast distribution platforms.

13.  Pixel Tracking Becomes Norm, but Gets Called Into Question
The podcast industry is all-in on pixel-tracking, and for good reason: we finally have the ability to track non-direct visits and conversions on the medium at the show level. However, no attribution model is infallible and there will come a time this year when the belle of the podcast attribution ball gets called out. We expect a pushback that may upset the narrative for the entire industry. Our recommendation is to use pixel-tracking as one facet of your attribution model while using tried and true post-purchase surveys and traditional marketing mix models to confirm the results.