Our 2020 Industry Predictions Graded

Happy New Year from Oxford Road! As this year draws to a close, we’re revisiting a thought piece from the past. Earlier this year, Oxford Road Founder and CEO Dan Granger made a list of 20 predictions for the advertising space in 2020 (Part 1, Part 2). While there was no mention of a Global Pandemic, this week, we’re checking to see which prognostications stuck and which fell short.

Prediction #1: The Industry Goes All-In on DAI — 6/10

Yes, Dynamic Ad Insertion has continued to take over the podcast world, and while many shows we used to buy “baked in” have gone DAI, it’s still about 50/50. 

Prediction #2: Voice is the New Internet — 7/10

Voice technology has seen major strides this year, and we’re now seeing very strong performance for a number of advertisers who are pioneering the space — but it’s still not as ubiquitous as we had hoped last year. 

Prediction #3: Media Polarization, Advertiser Controversy — 10/10

Dan nailed this one. Media polarization has hit an all-time high this year, but now marketers have a tool to help navigate the treacherous waters —  The Media Roundtable. With the tools provided on this site, our hope is that we can collectively stop “cancel culture” and work to bring this nation back together.

Prediction #4: Scales Tip From Traditional To Digital Media — 10/10

Another homerun! The pandemic solidified the movement from traditional media to digital media. From the massive growth in streaming video to the spikes in podcasts, the old-guard is fading and their digital counterparts are gaining ground. 

Prediction #5: Podcast Attribution Takes More Baby Steps — 9/10

Podcast attribution was in need of a massive update and we started to see it this year. No attribution model is perfect, but we’re feeling better and better about pixel tracking from our partners in the podcast space. So much so that we’re now making it a mandatory recommendation for all new advertisers to the space. 

Prediction #6: Brand Marketers Continue To Drive Up Podcast Premiums — 7/10

Yes, brand advertisers continue to drive up the cost of the podcast placements we’ve loved for years — and while it’s still a buyer’s market for performance advertisers, that may be coming to an end. 

Prediction #7: Brand Budgets Increase, for Now — 8/10

Internally, we’re hearing a lot more about a client’s need to push their brand dollars. While it didn’t necessarily transpire in 2020, we expect this trend to continue in 2021. 

Prediction #8: Podcasts Are the New Blogs — 4/10

Not much has changed here. Podcasts are now, essentially, what they were last year. Yes, we have more podcasts than we did last year, but no massive shifts have occurred.

Prediction #9: Koala Corps Reaches First Milestone — 6/10

We missed the mark on this one by year’s end, but are optimistic it won’t be much longer. Every day at children’s hospitals across the country, children who are too young to verbally advocate for themselves are left alone in bed because parents, nurses, and hospital staff cannot be available 24/7. We launched The Koala Corps in 2018 to solve this problem by raising funds to hire full-time staff to run the program, as willing volunteers are plentiful but someone to vet, schedule, train and manage them are not. We still haven’t hit our goal. Help us achieve this first milestone by learning more and contributing here.

Prediction #10: Smart Speakers Grow a Personality — 7/10

Yes, Samuel Jackson can voice your smart speaker, but we’re still a long ways away from truly personalizing your smart speakers. However, personalized content is getting better every day and Alexa is getting to know you far better now than she did last year. 

Prediction #11: You’re Going To Start Feeling Stupid for Not Having a Voice App — 7/10

2020 was the year of Podcast, but we’ve seen great strides in smart speakers. Performance for the channel looks better than ever — you may be behind the 8-ball if you don’t have a voice app, so it’s time to get moving.  

Prediction #12: People Start To Calm Down About Podcast — 2/10

Against our better judgment, the advertising world is still talking podcasts. We saw monumental acquisitions in the space this year from Spotify, SiriusXM, and more, and we’re still not done. Yes, the Podcast boom will slow, but it’s not done just yet. 

Prediction #13: Multi-Variate Testing Emerges in Audio — 5/10

We’ve started to test this for a number of advertisers but this is still ripe for growth. Let the new technology help guide your messaging efforts. We’re only scratching the surface so far, but the future looks good. 

Prediction #14: Local Podcasts Rise — 2/10

Not yet. We’re seeing some hyper-local podcasts emerge but they have not seen the massive jump predicted last year. 

Prediction #15: Audio Stays Hot — 6/10

While podcast listenership spiked, radio dragged. Thanks, Rona!

Prediction #16: Multi-Length Audio Coming To a Speaker Near You — 7/10

Not yet. While there’s no Serial-sized breakthrough in 2020, quite a few publishers have been dabbling. For example, you can now hear Fox News flash briefings on Spotify, and a quick Google search shows a lot of movement in the space.  

Prediction #17: Subscription Audio Rises — 2/10

While we thought companies like Luminary would emerge in 2020, subscription audio did not see a gain in 2020. Chalk this one up to the pandemic, but expect more of these in 2021.

Prediction #18: Overuse of the Term: “Full Stop” — 5/10

While we thought this phrase died, it was recently used in an email to our team last week. Let 2021 be the year this one finally goes away.

Prediction #19: Spotify overtakes Apple — 8/10

Oh yeah, Spotify has destroyed Apple in the Podcast space from a content perspective. However, the “Cupertino King” still owns distribution — but that may be also on the decline.

Prediction #20: Automation Finds its Limits — 10/10

Despite the industry’s wish to yield similar results using canned voices and “producer-read” ads on podcast, host-read ads work better. Corroborated by multiple studies, host-read ads perform best for advertisers. Until the industry starts giving massive discounts for non-host-read ads, we will continue to advocate for personalized, host-read ads whenever possible.

Dan Gets a “D”

This year was nuts, and if you add the totals up, Dan scored 64% in his predictions. While that may not be a stellar grade, with the curveball 2020 threw us, a “D” is a 2020 “B+”. 

To all of the Influencer readers, thank you. Our hope is that 2021 will be a year of restoration, in every sense of the word. In the coming months, you’ll hear a lot more from us regarding our mission to bring the media landscape together and forge a new path of unity. We’re happy to say goodbye to 2020 and look forward to all that 2021 will bring. Happy New Year!